Quantifying iPhone (JupiterResearch Analyst Weblogs)

Apple’s stated target of 10 million iPhone sales by the end of 2008 (18 months) will represent less than one percent of total worldwide mobile handset sales. Apple is thus focusing essentially on a small high-end segment. Apple expects iPhone sales to ramp up considerably faster than the iPod. In the first 18 months after the iPod’s launch Apple sold 1.3 million iPods worldwide. Why so different? The mobile phone market is much much larger and Apple has now established a major beachhead on the PC (iTunes, Apple software update, Quicktime, Safari etc.) and the iPhone is compatible with the PC on day 1, unlike the iPod. Apple has sold more than 100 million iPods in total. Apple entered the mp3 player market late (2001) and yet carried all before them. This highlights Apple’s ability to enter a market and disrupt the market shares of existing players. However, building a mobile phone, let alone a really great phone, is many times more complicated than creating a music player or PDA: ask Palm, Psion, Sendo, Siemens, or Sony… Apple’s sales target of 10 million is modest compared with its established opposition in the media centric phone category: In just the last six months of 2006 — not the 18 months that Apple is targeting — Nokia sold 10 million N Series “multimedia computers” (i.e. media-centric smartphones). In addition, Nokia sold E series business-focused smartphones, and hundreds of million phones in total.